2026 Interest Rate Forecast - 6 Major Canadian Banks
- Alex Leite
- Jan 7
- 2 min read
Here are the predictions from the six major Canadian banks as of January 2026 for interest rates by the end of 2026.
By the end of 2026, the six major banks are all predicting slightly lower interest rates for Canadian mortgages, except Scotiabank and RBC, which believe rate cuts are done.
Bank | 2026 December Rate BoC Forecast | 2026 December 5-Year Bond Yield Forecast |
BMO | 2.25% | N/A |
CIBC | 2.25% | 3.20% |
National Bank | 2.75% | 2.90% |
RBC | 2.25% | 3.00% |
Scotiabank | 2.75% | 3.05% |
TD Bank | 2.25% | 2.90% |
Current BoC & 5-Year Yield | 2.25% | 2.93% |
Current Major Bank Prime Rate | 4.45% | N/A |
Notes: | The Bank of Canada (BoC) rate is not the rate you receive on the market. This rate determines what the major banks use for their prime rate. | The 5-year bond yield is not the interest rate you will receive from the bank. Banks add a 1.50-2.00% interest rate premium to the bond yield for the rate you receive. |
If you're looking for the current interest rates on the market, such as variable and fixed rates, check out this interest rate page. These interest rates are updated weekly.
If you're worried you're not getting the best rate or want to discuss where rates might be heading, feel free to email me at alex@triedandtruemortgages.ca. I’d be happy to chat about your options and plans. Sometimes, a fresh perspective helps.
TL;DR:
Mixed Outlook for 2026: While BMO, CIBC, RBC, and TD predict the Bank of Canada (BoC) rate will hold steady at 2.25% through December 2026, National Bank and Scotiabank anticipate a slight increase to 2.75%.
Bond Yield Variations: Forecasts for the 5-year bond yield by the end of 2026 range from 2.90% (National Bank and TD) to 3.20% (CIBC), which will directly influence fixed-rate mortgage pricing.
Rate Reality Check: It is important to remember that consumers do not receive the BoC or bond yield rates directly. Banks typically add a 1.50% to 2.00% premium to these figures to determine actual market mortgage rates.
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