2025 Interest Rate Forecast - 6 Major Canadian Banks
- Alex Leite
- Sep 9
- 2 min read
Here are the predictions from the six major Canadian banks as of September for interest rates by the end of 2025.
By the end of 2025, the six major banks are all predicting slightly lower interest rates for Canadian mortgages, except Scotiabank and RBC, which believe rate cuts are done.
Bank | 2025 December Rate BoC Forecast | 2025 December 5-Year Bond Yield Forecast |
BMO | 2.25% | 2.80% |
CIBC | 2.25% | 2.75% |
National Bank | 2.25% | 2.50% |
RBC | 2.75% | 3.10% |
Scotiabank | 2.75% | 2.80% |
TD Bank | 2.25% | 2.95% |
Current BoC & 5-Year Yield | 2.75% | 2.78% |
Current Major Bank Prime Rate | 4.95% | N/A |
Notes: | The Bank of Canada (BoC) rate is not the rate you receive on the market. This rate determines what the major banks use for their prime rate. | The 5-year bond yield is not the interest rate you will receive from the bank. Banks add a 1.50-2.00% interest rate premium to the bond yield for the rate you receive. |
If you're looking for the current interest rates on the market, such as variable and fixed rates, check out this interest rate page. These interest rates are updated weekly.
If you're worried you're not getting the best rate or want to discuss where rates might be heading, feel free to email me at alex@triedandtruemortgages.ca. I’d be happy to chat about your options and plans. Sometimes, a fresh perspective helps.
TL;DR:
All six major Canadian banks predict Bank of Canada rates to land in the 2.25%-2.75% range by December 2025.
Fixed rates may hit a low of 3.50% by the end of 2025, while variable rates could drop to around 3.75%.
These forecasts suggest that a fixed or variable rate could be the right option, depending on your risk tolerance.
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